Wednesday, 29 October 2008

Nathan's Election predications

Ok, with about a week and a half to go, it’s probably time I do a post or two on the election, considering I studied politics. Now, a week and a half is a long time in politics, and it is always considered foolish to make prediction as to the results. Nevertheless, I thought I would make some predictions as to the results, just to see how I go, before I turn my thoughts to the slightly more serious matter of how we should vote.
- National will get the biggest proportion of the party vote, around 45%, although probably not much higher.
- Labour will get around 35-37% of the party vote.
- The Greens will be the only other party to get over the 5% thresholds, probably around 6 or 7%.
- New Zealand First I’m picking won’t get over 5%, and survival is dependent on winstone peters winning back tauranga. Although if anyone can make a came back its Peters, so don’t be surprised if he does win his seat back.
- Rodney Hide, Peter Dunne and Jim Anderton will all hold their seats, and thus there parties will get back into parliament. However, they will all only get around the 1-3% of the party vote, and will have 1-3 seats each.
- The Maori party will win one or two of the Maori seats off Labour, although I’m picking labour will hold on to at least one of them, but will get a smaller % of the arty vote than this, and will overhang the parliament.
- No other party will get into parliament.
- The government will be lead by National, with support from the Maori party and United Future, and if they need it Act.
I think they key to this election is going to be the seat of tauranga. If Peters can win it back and get New Zealand First back into parliament, National will have issues forming a government as they have ruled him out. If he can’t win it back, National will win. It’s interesting that most of the minor parties have taken one side or another. Last election there were three centre parties which could have gone either way- New Zealand First, United Future and the Maori party. This time however, National has ruled out working with New Zealand First and United Future has said they will only go with National. Only the Maori party are still official open to going either way, although things can change depending on the results.

Oh yes, and barack obama will win the US election

No comments: